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Will Climate Change Reduce Security? An agent-based theoretical approach
It is not yet clear whether climate change is likely to cause economic and political insecurity through channels such as resource scarcity and mass migration. In this paper, we have developed an agent-based model to study whether climate change is likely to lead to an increase in the appropriation of resources in environments where adaptive agents can allocate a fraction of their effort to predatory behavior. By enriching a production and conflict model through the introduction of separate product and resource appropriation, we show how boundedly-rational agents capable of learning can update their adaptive expectations and optimize their allocation decisions using a genetic framework. A Cobb-Douglas production function and a standard contest-success function are embedded in each agent with heterogonous attributes. The model is run under different populations and resource shocks, and both representative individual results and Monte Carlo results are reported. The results show a high level of complexity in agents’ allocation behavior with outputs ranging from no statistically significant allocation changes to widespread conflict in the environment depending on the initial conditions and the nature of the scenarios. Overall the results support previous empirical findings that the main link between climate change and conflict is through changes in the distribution of resources rather than their overall availability.
Keywords: Climate Change, Environmental Security, Conflict, Agent-based Model, ODD Protocol.
Climate Change and Migration Patterns in Bangladesh: An agent-based model
Bangladesh is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change impacts such as sea level rise and extreme weather events due to its widespread poverty, high population density, and low-lying topography. In this paper, we report on the development and results from a modular agent-based model of the migration dynamics that may arise in Bangladesh as a result of climate change and extreme weather events. The model’s features are based on data at division and district administrative levels. The main modules, namely climate, human lifecycles, economic activity and migration, are each calibrated with data on relevant indicators, such as the incidence of extreme poverty, socio-economic vulnerability, demography and historical drought, cyclone, and flood patterns. Each agent represents a cluster of individuals with similar characteristics. The results suggest potential population and migration dynamics of Bangladesh under different climatic scenarios.
Keywords: Climate Change, Migration, Agent-based Model, Bangladesh, Environmental Shocks.